New article on Inoreader

http://www.youtube.com/user/TheRationalFutureRobin Hanson - How Far Away Are Expansionist Aliens? -

Robin discusses his new model (simpler & more constrained than the Drake equation, which I tentatively label as the 'Hanson Equation'.) for predicting how far (in space & time) expansionist (or aggressive or grabby (GC)) alien civs might be. He describes his median estimate that (conditional on our survival and continued expansionist growth), we will meet this kind of alien in approximately 500 million years.
- it's difficult to believe civs are very rare since our abiogenesis and rise to civ appeared somewhat early in the history of the universe

In sum, it is possible to estimate how far away in space and time are the nearest aliens, if one is willing to make these assumptions:
- It is worth knowing how far to grabby alien civs (GCs), even if that doesn’t tell about other alien types.
- Try-try parts of the great filter alone make it hard for any one oasis to birth an GC in 14 billion years.
- We can roughly estimate the speed at which GCs expand, and the number of hard try-try steps.
- Earth is not now within the sphere of control of a GC.
- Earth is at risk of birthing a GC soon, making today’s date a sample from GC time origin distribution.

Please also check out the other interviews with Robin Hanson on the Great Filter and Burning the Cosmic Commons.



Refs:
Great Filter: http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/greatfilter.html
Try-Try or Try-Once Great Filter? https://www.overcomingbias.com/2020/12/try-try-or-try-once-great-filter.html
How Far Aggressive Aliens? Part 1: https://www.overcomingbias.com/2020/12/how-far-aggressive-aliens.html
How Far Aggressive Aliens? Part 2: https://www.overcomingbias.com/2020/12/how-far-aggressive-aliens-part-2.html

Searching for Eden: https://www.overcomingbias.com/2020/12/searching-for-eden.html

Five or six step scenario for evolution? (Brandon Carter): https://arxiv.org/abs/0711.1985

Burning the cosmic commons:
- Video interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wLmhXE2e1bY
- Paper: http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/filluniv.pdf

The Great Filter:
- Video interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGXpsJYNILg
- Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter


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